Investigating the relationship between microbial network features of giant kelp "seedbank" cultures and subsequent farm performance.

Microbial inoculants can increase the yield of cultivated crops and are successful in independent trials; however, efficacy drops in large-scale applications due to insufficient consideration of microbial community dynamics. The structure of microbiomes, in addition to the impact of individual taxa, is an important factor to consider when designing growth-promoting inoculants. Here, we investigate the microbial network and community assembly patterns of Macrocystis pyrifera gametophyte germplasm cultures (collectively referred to as a "seedbank") used to cultivate an offshore farm in Santa Barbara, California, and identify network features associated with increased biomass of mature sporophytes. We found that [1] several network features, such as clustering coefficient and edge ratios, significantly vary with biomass outcomes; [2] gametophytes that become low- or high-biomass sporophytes have different hub taxa; and [3] microbial community assembly of gametophyte germplasm cultures is niche-driven. Overall, this study describes microbial community dynamics in M. pyrifera germplasm cultures and ultimately supports the development of early life stage inoculants that can be used on seaweed cultivars to increase biomass yield.

A scaffolded and annotated reference genome of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera).

Macrocystis pyrifera (giant kelp), is a brown macroalga of great ecological importance as a primary producer and structure-forming foundational species that provides habitat for hundreds of species. It has many commercial uses (e.g. source of alginate, fertilizer, cosmetics, feedstock). One of the limitations to exploiting giant kelp's economic potential and assisting in giant kelp conservation efforts is a lack of genomic tools like a high quality, contiguous reference genome with accurate gene annotations. Reference genomes attempt to capture the complete genomic sequence of an individual or species, and importantly provide a universal structure for comparison across a multitude of genetic experiments, both within and between species. We assembled the giant kelp genome of a haploid female gametophyte de novo using PacBio reads, then ordered contigs into chromosome level scaffolds using Hi-C. We found the giant kelp genome to be 537 MB, with a total of 35 scaffolds and 188 contigs. The assembly N50 is 13,669,674 with GC content of 50.37%. We assessed the genome completeness using BUSCO, and found giant kelp contained 94% of the BUSCO genes from the stramenopile clade. Annotation of the giant kelp genome revealed 25,919 genes. Additionally, we present genetic variation data based on 48 diploid giant kelp sporophytes from three different Southern California populations that confirms the population structure found in other studies of these populations. This work resulted in a high-quality giant kelp genome that greatly increases the genetic knowledge of this ecologically and economically vital species.

Past climate-driven range shifts structuring intraspecific biodiversity levels of the giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) at global scales.

The paradigm of past climate-driven range shifts structuring the distribution of marine intraspecific biodiversity lacks replication in biological models exposed to comparable limiting conditions in independent regions. This may lead to confounding effects unlinked to climate drivers. We aim to fill in this gap by asking whether the global distribution of intraspecific biodiversity of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) is explained by past climate changes occurring across the two hemispheres. We compared the species' population genetic diversity and structure inferred with microsatellite markers, with range shifts and long-term refugial regions predicted with species distribution modelling (SDM) from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the present. The broad antitropical distribution of Macrocystis pyrifera is composed by six significantly differentiated genetic groups, for which current genetic diversity levels match the expectations of past climate changes. Range shifts from the LGM to the present structured low latitude refugial regions where genetic relics with higher and unique diversity were found (particularly in the Channel Islands of California and in Peru), while post-glacial expansions following ~ 40% range contraction explained extensive regions with homogenous reduced diversity. The estimated effect of past climate-driven range shifts was comparable between hemispheres, largely demonstrating that the distribution of intraspecific marine biodiversity can be structured by comparable evolutionary forces across the global ocean. Additionally, the differentiation and endemicity of regional genetic groups, confers high conservation value to these localized intraspecific biodiversity hotspots of giant kelp forests.

A tool for detecting giant kelp canopy biomass decline in the Californias.

Kelp species provide many ecosystem services associated with their three-dimensional structures. Among these, fast-growth, canopy-forming species, like giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, are the foundation of kelp forests across many temperate reefs. Giant kelp populations have experienced regional declines in different parts of the world. Giant kelp canopy is very dynamic and can take years to recover from disturbance, challenging comparisons of standing biomass with historical baselines. The Santa Barbara Coastal LTER (SBC LTER), curates a time series of Landsat sensed surface cover and biomass for giant kelp in the west coast of North America. In the last decade, this resource has been fundamental to understanding the species' population dynamics and drivers. However, simple ready-to-use summary statistics aimed at classifying regional kelp decline or recovery are not readily available to stakeholders and coastal managers. To this end, we describe here two simple metrics made available through the R package kelpdecline. First, the proportion of Landsat pixels in decline (PPD), in which current biomass is compared with a historical baseline, and second, a pixel occupancy trend (POT), in which current year pixel occupancy is compared to the time-series long probability of occupancy. The package produces raster maps and output tables summarizing kelp decline and trends over a 0.25 × 0.25° scale. Using kelpdecline, we show how sensitivity analysis on PPD parameter variation can increase the confidence of kelp decline estimates.

Whole-genome sequencing distinguishes the two most common giant kelp ecomorphs.

Giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, exists as distinct morphological variants-or "ecomorphs"-in different populations, yet the mechanism for this variation is uncertain, and environmental drivers for either adaptive or plastic phenotypes have not been identified. The ecomorphs Macrocystis "pyrifera" and M. "integrifolia" are distributed throughout temperate waters of North and South America with almost no geographic overlap and exhibit an incongruous, non-mirrored, distribution across the equator. This study evaluates the degree of genetic divergence between M. "pyrifera" and M. "integrifolia" across 18 populations in Chile and California using whole-genome sequencing and single-nucleotide polymorphism markers. Our results based on a principal component analysis, admixture clustering by genetic similarity, and phylogenetic inference demonstrate that M. "pyrifera" and M. "integrifolia" are genetically distinguishable. Analyses reveal separation by Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between morphs within hemispheres, suggesting that the convergent "integrifolia" morphology arose separately in each hemisphere. This is the first study to use whole-genome sequencing to understand genetic divergence in giant kelp ecomorphs, identifying 83 potential genes under selection and providing novel insights about Macrocystis evolution that were not evident with previous genetic techniques. Future studies are needed to uncover the environmental forces driving local adaptation and presumed convergent evolution of these morphs.

Natural variation of Macrocystis pyrifera gametophyte germplasm culture microbiomes and applications for improving yield in offshore farms.

With national interest in seaweed-based biofuels as a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels, there is a need for tools that produce high-yield seaweed cultivars and increase the efficiency of offshore farms. Several agricultural studies have demonstrated that the application of microbial inoculants at an early life stage can improve crop yield, and there is an opportunity to use similar techniques in seaweed aquaculture. However, there is a critical knowledge gap regarding host-microbiome associations of macroalgae gametophytes in germplasm cultures. Here, we investigate the microbial community of Macrocystis pyrifera gametophyte germplasm cultures that were used to cultivate an offshore farm in Santa Barbara, California and identify key taxa correlated with increased biomass of mature sporophytes. This work provides a valuable knowledge base for the development of microbial inoculants that produce high-biomass M. pyrifera cultivars to ultimately be used as biofuel feedstocks.

Macroalgal germplasm banking for conservation, food security, and industry.

Ex situ seed banking was first conceptualized and implemented in the early 20th century to maintain and protect crop lines. Today, ex situ seed banking is important for the preservation of heirloom strains, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, and diverse research applications. However, these efforts primarily target microalgae and terrestrial plants. Although some collections include macroalgae (i.e., seaweeds), they are relatively few and have yet to be connected via any international, coordinated initiative. In this piece, we provide a brief introduction to macroalgal germplasm banking and its application to conservation, industry, and mariculture. We argue that concerted effort should be made globally in germline preservation of marine algal species via germplasm banking with an overview of the technical advances for feasibility and ensured success.

Seascape genetics of the stalked kelp Pterygophora californica and comparative population genetics in the Santa Barbara Channel.

We conducted a population genetic analysis of the stalked kelp, Pterygophora californica, in the Santa Barbara Channel, California, USA. The results were compared with previous work on the genetic differentiation of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, in the same region. These two sympatric kelps not only share many life history and dispersal characteristics but also differ in that dislodged P. californica does not produce floating rafts with buoyant fertile sporophytes, commonly observed for M. pyrifera. We used a comparative population genetic approach with these two species to test the hypothesis that the ability to produce floating rafts increases the genetic connectivity among kelp patches in the Santa Barbara Channel. We quantified the association of habitat continuity and oceanographic distance with the genetic differentiation observed in stalked kelp, like previously conducted for giant kelp. We compared both overall (across all patches) and pairwise (between patches) genetic differentiation. We found that oceanographic transit time, habitat continuity, and geographic distance were all associated with genetic connectivity in P. californica, supporting similar previous findings for M. pyrifera. Controlling for differences in heterozygosity between kelp species using Jost's DEST , we showed that global differentiation and pairwise differentiation were similar among patches between the two kelp species, indicating that they have similar dispersal capabilities despite their differences in rafting ability. These results suggest that rafting sporophytes do not play a significant role in effective dispersal of M. pyrifera at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales.

Individual-based genetic analyses support asexual hydrochory dispersal in Zostera noltei.

Dispersal beyond the local patch in clonal plants was typically thought to result from sexual reproduction via seed dispersal. However, evidence for the separation, transport by water, and re-establishment of asexual propagules (asexual hydrochory) is mounting suggesting other important means of dispersal in aquatic plants. Using an unprecedented sampling size and microsatellite genetic identification, we describe the distribution of seagrass clones along tens of km within a coastal lagoon in Southern Portugal. Our spatially explicit individual-based sampling design covered 84 km2 and collected 3 185 Zostera noltei ramets from 803 sites. We estimated clone age, assuming rhizome elongation as the only mechanism of clone spread, and contrasted it with paleo-oceanographic sea level change. We also studied the association between a source of disturbance and the location of large clones. A total of 16 clones were sampled more than 10 times and the most abundant one was sampled 59 times. The largest distance between two samples from the same clone was 26.4 km and a total of 58 and 10 clones were sampled across more than 2 and 10 km, respectively. The number of extremely large clone sizes, and their old ages when assuming the rhizome elongation as the single causal mechanism, suggests other processes are behind the span of these clones. We discuss how the dispersal of vegetative fragments in a stepping-stone manner might have produced this pattern. We found higher probabilities to sample large clones away from the lagoon inlet, considered a source of disturbance. This study corroborates previous experiments on the success of transport and re-establishment of asexual fragments and supports the hypothesis that asexual hydrochory is responsible for the extent of these clones.

Fluctuations in population fecundity drive variation in demographic connectivity and metapopulation dynamics.

Demographic connectivity is vital to sustaining metapopulations yet often changes dramatically through time due to variation in the production and dispersal of offspring. However, the relative importance of variation in fecundity and dispersal in determining the connectivity and dynamics of metapopulations is poorly understood due to the paucity of comprehensive spatio-temporal data on these processes for most species. We quantified connectivity in metapopulations of a marine foundation species (giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera) across 11 years and approximately 900 km of coastline by estimating population fecundity with satellite imagery and propagule dispersal using a high-resolution ocean circulation model. By varying the temporal complexity of different connectivity measures and comparing their ability to explain observed extinction-colonization dynamics, we discovered that fluctuations in population fecundity, rather than fluctuations in dispersal, are the dominant driver of variation in connectivity and contribute substantially to metapopulation recovery and persistence. Thus, for species with high variability in reproductive output and modest variability in dispersal (most plants, many animals), connectivity measures ignoring fluctuations in fecundity may overestimate connectivity and likelihoods of persistence, limiting their value for understanding and conserving metapopulations. However, we demonstrate how connectivity measures can be simplified while retaining utility, validating a practical solution for data-limited systems.

Seascape drivers of Macrocystis pyrifera population genetic structure in the northeast Pacific.

At small spatial and temporal scales, genetic differentiation is largely controlled by constraints on gene flow, while genetic diversity across a species' distribution is shaped on longer temporal and spatial scales. We assess the hypothesis that oceanographic transport and other seascape features explain different scales of genetic structure of giant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera. We followed a hierarchical approach to perform a microsatellite-based analysis of genetic differentiation in Macrocystis across its distribution in the northeast Pacific. We used seascape genetic approaches to identify large-scale biogeographic population clusters and investigate whether they could be explained by oceanographic transport and other environmental drivers. We then modelled population genetic differentiation within clusters as a function of oceanographic transport and other environmental factors. Five geographic clusters were identified: Alaska/Canada, central California, continental Santa Barbara, California Channel Islands and mainland southern California/Baja California peninsula. The strongest break occurred between central and southern California, with mainland Santa Barbara sites forming a transition zone between the two. Breaks between clusters corresponded approximately to previously identified biogeographic breaks, but were not solely explained by oceanographic transport. An isolation-by-environment (IBE) pattern was observed where the northern and southern Channel Islands clustered together, but not with closer mainland sites, despite the greater distance between them. The strongest environmental association with this IBE pattern was observed with light extinction coefficient, which extends suitable habitat to deeper areas. Within clusters, we found support for previous results showing that oceanographic connectivity plays an important role in the population genetic structure of Macrocystis in the Northern hemisphere.

Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system.

Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment.

Reproductive strategies and isolation-by-demography in a marine clonal plant along an eutrophication gradient.

Genetic diversity in clonal organisms includes two distinct components, (i) the diversity of genotypes or clones (i.e. genotypic richness) in a population and (ii) that of the alleles (i.e. allelic and gene diversity within populations, and differentiation between populations). We investigated how population differentiation and genotypic components are associated across a gradient of eutrophication in a clonal marine plant. To that end, we combined direct measurements of sexual allocation (i.e. flower and seed counts) and genotypic analyses, which are used as an estimator of effective sexual reproduction across multiple generations. Genetic differentiation across sites was also modelled according to a hypothesis here defined as isolation-by-demography, in which we use population-specific factors, genotypic richness and eutrophication that are hypothesized to affect the source-sink dynamics and thus influence the genetic differentiation between a pair of populations. Eutrophic populations exhibited lower genotypic richness, in agreement with lower direct measurements of sexual allocation and contemporaneous gene flow. Genetic differentiation, while not explained by distance, was best predicted by genotypic richness and habitat quality. A multiple regression model using these two predictors was considered the best model (R(2) = 0.43). In this study, the relationship between environment and effective sexual-asexual balance is not simply (linearly) predicted by direct measurements of sexual allocation. Our results indicate that population-specific factors and the isolation-by-demography model should be used more often to understand genetic differentiation.

Disentangling the Influence of Mutation and Migration in Clonal Seagrasses Using the Genetic Diversity Spectrum for Microsatellites.

The recurrent lack of isolation by distance reported at regional scale in seagrass species was recently suggested to stem from stochastic events of large-scale dispersal. We explored the usefulness of phylogenetic information contained in microsatellite loci to test this hypothesis by using the Genetic Diversity Spectrum (GDS) on databases containing, respectively, 7 and 9 microsatellites genotypes for 1541 sampling units of Posidonia oceanica and 1647 of Cymodocea nodosa The simultaneous increase of microsatellite and geographic distances that emerges reveals a coherent pattern of isolation by distance in contrast to the chaotic pattern previously described using allele frequencies, in particular, for the long-lived P. oceanica These results suggest that the lack of isolation by distance, rather than the resulting from rare events of large-scale dispersal, reflects at least for some species a stronger influence of mutation over migration at the scale of the distribution range. The global distribution of genetic polymorphism may, therefore, result predominantly from ancient events of step-by-step (re)colonization followed by local recruitment and clonal growth, rather than contemporary gene flow. The analysis of GDS appears useful to unravel the evolutionary forces influencing the dynamics and evolution at distinct temporal and spatial scales by accounting for phylogenetic information borne by microsatellites, under an appropriate mutation model. This finding adds nuance to the generalization of the influence of large-scale dispersal on the dynamics of seagrasses.

Patch definition in metapopulation analysis: a graph theory approach to solve the mega-patch problem.

The manner in which patches are delineated in spatially realistic metapopulation models will influence the size, connectivity, and extinction and recolonization dynamics of those patches. Most commonly used patch-definition methods focus on identifying discrete, contiguous patches of habitat from a single temporal observation of species occurrence or from a model of habitat suitability. However, these approaches are not suitable for many metapopulation systems where entire patches may not be fully colonized at a given time. For these metapopulation systems, a single large patch of habitat may actually support multiple, interacting subpopulations. The interactions among these subpopulations will be ignored if the patch is treated as a single unit, a situation we term the "mega-patch problem." Mega-patches are characterized by variable intra-patch synchrony, artificially low inter-patch connectivity, and low extinction rates. One way to detect this problem is by using time series data to calculate demographic synchrony within mega-patches. We present a framework for identifying subpopulations in mega-patches using a combination of spatial autocorrelation and graph theory analyses. We apply our approach to southern California giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) forests using a new, long-term (27 years), satellite-based data set of giant kelp canopy biomass. We define metapopulation patches using our method as well as several other commonly used patch delineation methodologies and examine the colonization and extinction dynamics of the metapopulation under each approach. We find that the relationships between patch characteristics such as area and connectivity and the demographic processes of colonizations and extinctions vary among the different patch-definition methods. Our spatial-analysis/graph-theoretic framework produces results that match theoretical expectations better than the other methods. This approach can be used to identify subpopulations in metapopulations where the distributions of organisms do not always reflect the distribution of suitable habitat.

Genetic and experimental evidence for a mixed-age, mixed-origin bank of kelp microscopic stages in southern California.

Laboratory studies have demonstrated that the microscopic stages of kelps can rapidly resume development from a delayed state. Like terrestrial seeds or aquatic resting eggs, banks of delayed kelp stages may supplement population recovery after periods of stress, playing an important role for kelp populations that experience adult sporophyte absences due to seasonal or interannual disturbances. We found that removing the microscopic stages from natural rock substratum could prevent the appearance of juvenile kelp sporophytes for three months and the establishment of a diverse kelp assemblage for over four months within a southern California kelp forest. Juveniles were observed within one month in plots where microscopic stages were left intact, which may confer an advantage for the resulting sporophytes as they attain larger sizes before later recruiting neighbors. Microsatellite diversity was high (expected heterozygosity HE approximately 0.9) for juveniles and adults within our sites. Using a microsatellite-based parentage analysis for the dominant kelp, Macrocystis pyrifera, we estimated that a portion of the new M. pyrifera sporophyte recruits had originated from their parents at least seven months after their parents had disappeared. Similar delay durations have been demonstrated in recent laboratory studies. Additionally, our results suggest that zoospore dispersal distances > 50 m may be supported by including additional microsatellite loci in the analysis. We propose a mixed-age and, potentially, a mixed-origin bank of M. pyrifera gametophytes promotes maximal genetic diversity in recovering populations and reduces population genetic subdivision and self-fertilization rates for intact populations by promoting the survival of zoospores dispersed > 10 m and during inhospitable environmental conditions.

High and distinct range-edge genetic diversity despite local bottlenecks.

The genetic consequences of living on the edge of distributional ranges have been the subject of a largely unresolved debate. Populations occurring along persistent low latitude ranges (rear-edge) are expected to retain high and unique genetic diversity. In contrast, currently less favourable environmental conditions limiting population size at such range-edges may have caused genetic erosion that prevails over past historical effects, with potential consequences on reducing future adaptive capacity. The present study provides an empirical test of whether population declines towards a peripheral range might be reflected on decreasing diversity and increasing population isolation and differentiation. We compare population genetic differentiation and diversity with trends in abundance along a latitudinal gradient towards the peripheral distribution range of Saccorhiza polyschides, a large brown seaweed that is the main structural species of kelp forests in SW Europe. Signatures of recent bottleneck events were also evaluated to determine whether the recently recorded distributional shifts had a negative influence on effective population size. Our findings show decreasing population density and increasing spatial fragmentation and local extinctions towards the southern edge. Genetic data revealed two well supported groups with a central contact zone. As predicted, higher differentiation and signs of bottlenecks were found at the southern edge region. However, a decrease in genetic diversity associated with this pattern was not verified. Surprisingly, genetic diversity increased towards the edge despite bottlenecks and much lower densities, suggesting that extinctions and recolonizations have not strongly reduced diversity or that diversity might have been even higher there in the past, a process of shifting genetic baselines.

Looking into the black box: simulating the role of self-fertilization and mortality in the genetic structure of Macrocystis pyrifera.

Patterns of spatial genetic structure (SGS), typically estimated by genotyping adults, integrate migration over multiple generations and measure the effective gene flow of populations. SGS results can be compared with direct ecological studies of dispersal or mating system to gain additional insights. When mismatches occur, simulations can be used to illuminate the causes of these mismatches. Here, we report a SGS and simulation-based study of self-fertilization in Macrocystis pyrifera, the giant kelp. We found that SGS is weaker than expected in M. pyrifera and used computer simulations to identify selfing and early mortality rates for which the individual heterozygosity distribution fits that of the observed data. Only one (of three) population showed both elevated kinship in the smallest distance class and a significant negative slope between kinship and geographical distance. All simulations had poor fit to the observed data unless mortality due to inbreeding depression was imposed. This mortality could only be imposed for selfing, as these were the only simulations to show an excess of homozygous individuals relative to the observed data. Thus, the expected data consistently achieved nonsignificant differences from the observed data only under models of selfing with mortality, with best fits between 32% and 42% selfing. Inbreeding depression ranged from 0.70 to 0.73. The results suggest that density-dependent mortality of early life stages is a significant force in structuring Macrocystis populations, with few highly homozygous individuals surviving. The success of these results should help to validate simulation approaches even in data-poor systems, as a means to estimate otherwise difficult-to-measure life cycle parameters.

Synchrony in dynamics of giant kelp forests is driven by both local recruitment and regional environmental controls.

Populations of many species display spatially synchronous fluctuations in abundance. Synchrony is most commonly attributed to three processes: factors that influence recruitment (e.g., dispersal, early survival), large-scale environmental variability, and spatially autocorrelated trophic interactions. However it is often difficult to link population synchrony to a specific dominant process, particularly when multiple synchronizing forces are operating. We utilized a new satellite-based data set of giant kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) canopy biomass to examine population synchrony in southern California kelp forests on spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 300 km and temporal scales ranging from 1 to 11 years. We examined the relationship between synchrony and distance for adult kelp populations, kelp recruits, sea urchin abundance (a major grazer of kelp), and environmental variables known to influence kelp population dynamics. Population synchrony in giant kelp decreased with distance between populations: an initial rapid exponential decrease between 50 m and 1.3 km was followed by a second, large-scale decrease between distances of 1.3 km and 172 km. The 50-m to 1.3-km spatial scale corresponded to the scales of synchrony in the abundance of sea urchins and young kelp recruits, suggesting that local drivers of predation and recruitment influence small-scale synchrony in kelp populations. The spatial correlation patterns of environmental variables, particularly wave height, were similar to the synchrony-distance relationship of kelp populations from 1.3 km to 172 km, suggesting that regional environmental variability, i.e., the Moran effect, was the dominant process affecting synchrony at larger spatial scales. This two-step pattern in the relationship between kelp biomass synchrony and distance was apparent in each of the 11 years of our study. Our results highlight the potential for synthesizing approaches from both landscape and population ecology in order to identify the multiple processes that generate synchrony in population dynamics.

Isolation by oceanographic distance explains genetic structure for Macrocystis pyrifera in the Santa Barbara Channel.

Ocean currents are expected to be the predominant environmental factor influencing the dispersal of planktonic larvae or spores; yet, their characterization as predictors of marine connectivity has been hindered by a lack of understanding of how best to use oceanographic data. We used a high-resolution oceanographic model output and Lagrangian particle simulations to derive oceanographic distances (hereafter called transport times) between sites studied for Macrocystis pyrifera genetic differentiation. We build upon the classical isolation-by-distance regression model by asking how much additional variability in genetic differentiation is explained when adding transport time as predictor. We explored the extent to which gene flow is dependent upon seasonal changes in ocean circulation. Because oceanographic transport between two sites is inherently asymmetric, we also compare the explanatory power of models using the minimum or the mean transport times. Finally, we compare the direction of connectivity as estimated by the oceanographic model and genetic assignment tests. We show that the minimum transport time had higher explanatory power than the mean transport time, revealing the importance of considering asymmetry in ocean currents when modelling gene flow. Genetic assignment tests were much less effective in determining asymmetry in gene flow. Summer-derived transport times, in particular for the month of June, which had the strongest current speed, greatest asymmetry and highest spore production, resulted in the best-fit model explaining twice the variability in genetic differentiation relative to models that use geographic distance or habitat continuity. The best overall model also included habitat continuity and explained 65% of the variation in genetic differentiation among sites.